International Monetary Fund revises up China's 2019 growth forecast from 6.2 to 6.3%

The Canadian dollar        , Reuters  Mark Blinch

The IMF cut its growth estimate for Canada to 1.5 per cent in 2019, down from its previous estimate of 1.9 per cent growth in January, according to its World Economic Outlook report published Tuesday.

The report also estimated that Iran's economy, the second largest in the region behind Saudi Arabia, shrunk by 3.9 percent in 2018, as opposed to 1.5 percent projected earlier.

Due to slower growth in China amid trade tensions with the U.S. alongside lost momentum in Europe and Japan, the International Monetary Fund expects the global economic expansion to slow down to 3.3 percent this year from 3.6 percent last year. The IMF raised its forecast for USA growth in 2020 by a tenth of a percentage point to 1.9 percent. Earlier last month, the International Monetary Fund recommended the Korean government come up with a more expansionary fiscal policy to prevent the country's economic conditions from worsening and meet its 2.6 percent growth target for this year.

The IMF is projecting a decline in growth this year for 70 percent of the global economy. Growth for the sub-region - which also includes Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand - has been retained at 5.1% this year and 5.2% for 2020, beating the trend as most forecasts were slashed.

Gopinath said it was 'imperative that costly policy mistakes are avoided.' In particular, she highlighted the need for the world's two biggest economies, the United States and China, to find a way to resolve their trade war, which has intensified global economic uncertainty.

The IMF said the expected budget deficit of the country is likely to be 7.2 percent, which is feared to increase next year.

With the Indian economy projected to slow down further in the fiscal fourth quarter, the central bank's focus has shifted from inflationary concerns to sustaining the growth momentum. This has been done taking into consideration other downside risks, including a possibility of tensions related to trade flaring up again, and possible disruptions in global supply chains of industries.

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The agency also pointed to uncertainty around the new NAFTA agreement, which is yet to be ratified, as a downside risk to the global outlook.

The overall outlook for emerging Asian economies remains favorable, with China's growth projected to slow gradually toward sustainable levels.

"We expect a growth recovery for the country".

Conditions have eased in 2019 as the US Federal Reserve signaled a more accommodative monetary policy stance and markets became more optimistic about a US-China trade deal, but they remain slightly more restrictive than in the autumn, the IMF said.

"Growth in advanced economies will slow slightly in 2020, despite a partial recovery in the euro area, as the impact of U.S. fiscal stimulus fades and growth tends toward the modest potential for the group, given aging trends and low productivity growth".

The IMF said that to secure its growth prospects, it is essential that India continues to implement structural and financial sector reforms and makes an effort to reduce public debt through continued fiscal consolidation.

Specifically, it says a continued fiscal consolidation is needed to bring down public debt, strengthening goods and services tax compliance and lowering subsidies.

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